Many ask what reindustrialization will deliver. Better question: what happens when the money leaves. Today's numbers, run forward ten years and no romance.
Can you elaborate or point me to more information on the concept of "own the cell," please?
"But every robot deployed on a US floor, whoever built it, changes the labor math the same way: the job stops being “operate the machine” and becomes 'own the cell.' ”
"Own the cell" is my shorthand for where the operator role is heading. Today most shops staff by machine: one person watches one spindle, loads parts, presses go. A cell is the machines plus everything around them: two to six CNCs, a robot tending them, the fixtures, the in-process quality checks, the schedule. Owning it means one person answers for the cell's output, not the machine's motion. They program, set up, catch exceptions, and let the robot do the loading and the waiting. The economics follow from there: revenue per worker goes up several times, which is the only durable way the wage does too (that's the north-of-100k path from the piece).
Thank you. It is a great essay, in tandem with yours.
On the culture piece (#1 in his book). There is a data center developer/operator called Compass Datacenters. They are a great example of a major, modern company done right. They work from an ethos of building and operating a 100 year facility. Here is an excellent example of what this means in practice. They just donated a $12 million facility to Texas State Technical College to facilitate educations in a variety of fields related to operating data centers. Data centers are so high profile right now that this is a high profile donation -- and it will be creating high profile jobs. I know someone who went through the program. They are proud! It is a step towards raising the profile of modern manufacturing (because data centers are factories, fundamentally).
Compass is owned by KKR and Brookfield, so this model has buy-in from the very top of equity in North America.
That first graph is interesting. That post-pandemic runup (2020-2024) exactly coincides with Biden's term. The quick drop-off marks Trump’s. This isn't a political statement, it's just saying what the graph shows.
It shows what happens when you get an administration committed to reindustrialing the country. The Chips Act, the Inflation Reduction Act. The concentration on doing the right things.
Biden, ironically, was helped by the pandemic, by Trump’s terrible handling of the pandemic, and by the post-pandemic collapse of supply chains. It allowed him to adopt an "all hands" approach because of the "crisis".
Trump, on the other hand, actively did just about everything wrong in his first two years. It's not just his trying to undo everything the Biden administration had done, but also doing absolutely stupid stuff like the tariffs (who could possibly think that tariffing Canadian steel and aluminum the way he has could possibly benefit US manufacturing). The tariff uncertainty has also depressed investment.
Usually, an incoming president doesn't immediately affect the economy. Weirdly, both Biden and Trump II hit the ground running. Biden because of the "crisis" and his active role in the Obama administration. Trump, because he'd done it before and he had folks spending years planning what to do (project 2025, etc.)
China admits to 20% youth unemployment - it has no labour shortage and automation is set to accelerate. China is well ahead in applying inference compute and modelling as infrastructure. Space has severe limitations as a way forward absent technologies that are entirely science fiction and rumours. The only realistic option for the US economy going forward is a war economy and it seems to be the way the US is headed.
Can you elaborate or point me to more information on the concept of "own the cell," please?
"But every robot deployed on a US floor, whoever built it, changes the labor math the same way: the job stops being “operate the machine” and becomes 'own the cell.' ”
It is an incredible essay, solid gold. Thank you.
Thanks Jeff, I appreciate that!
"Own the cell" is my shorthand for where the operator role is heading. Today most shops staff by machine: one person watches one spindle, loads parts, presses go. A cell is the machines plus everything around them: two to six CNCs, a robot tending them, the fixtures, the in-process quality checks, the schedule. Owning it means one person answers for the cell's output, not the machine's motion. They program, set up, catch exceptions, and let the robot do the loading and the waiting. The economics follow from there: revenue per worker goes up several times, which is the only durable way the wage does too (that's the north-of-100k path from the piece).
Is it possible to get a non-Twitter version of Zane's article?
Here you are https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vBheuRFlDEvctS30lkoYs_DBDzt56j-V/view?usp=sharing
Thank you. It is a great essay, in tandem with yours.
On the culture piece (#1 in his book). There is a data center developer/operator called Compass Datacenters. They are a great example of a major, modern company done right. They work from an ethos of building and operating a 100 year facility. Here is an excellent example of what this means in practice. They just donated a $12 million facility to Texas State Technical College to facilitate educations in a variety of fields related to operating data centers. Data centers are so high profile right now that this is a high profile donation -- and it will be creating high profile jobs. I know someone who went through the program. They are proud! It is a step towards raising the profile of modern manufacturing (because data centers are factories, fundamentally).
Compass is owned by KKR and Brookfield, so this model has buy-in from the very top of equity in North America.
That first graph is interesting. That post-pandemic runup (2020-2024) exactly coincides with Biden's term. The quick drop-off marks Trump’s. This isn't a political statement, it's just saying what the graph shows.
It shows what happens when you get an administration committed to reindustrialing the country. The Chips Act, the Inflation Reduction Act. The concentration on doing the right things.
Biden, ironically, was helped by the pandemic, by Trump’s terrible handling of the pandemic, and by the post-pandemic collapse of supply chains. It allowed him to adopt an "all hands" approach because of the "crisis".
Trump, on the other hand, actively did just about everything wrong in his first two years. It's not just his trying to undo everything the Biden administration had done, but also doing absolutely stupid stuff like the tariffs (who could possibly think that tariffing Canadian steel and aluminum the way he has could possibly benefit US manufacturing). The tariff uncertainty has also depressed investment.
Usually, an incoming president doesn't immediately affect the economy. Weirdly, both Biden and Trump II hit the ground running. Biden because of the "crisis" and his active role in the Obama administration. Trump, because he'd done it before and he had folks spending years planning what to do (project 2025, etc.)
"Rules of the experiment: no world war, no collapse,...". Not a good bet.
Sorry, don't want to predict unpredictable.
China admits to 20% youth unemployment - it has no labour shortage and automation is set to accelerate. China is well ahead in applying inference compute and modelling as infrastructure. Space has severe limitations as a way forward absent technologies that are entirely science fiction and rumours. The only realistic option for the US economy going forward is a war economy and it seems to be the way the US is headed.